Livestock, poultry outlook seems to be improving
Despite years of high feed costs and tight margins, the outlook for livestock and poultry appears to be improving, according to USDA Livestock& Poultry World Markets and Trade report released in April 2014.
Global broiler meat production is still a record, but revised downward from the November forecast by 1.7 million tons to 85.3 million. Production is pressured by avian influenza in China, and cut by lower profitability in Brazil, Russia and the United States, but raised to record due to bolstering demand in India and the EU.
Global trade is virtually unchanged as exports are forecast at 10.7 million tons as reductions in Brazil and the EU are offset by increases in Turkey, Ukraine and China.
Global pork production is raised 1.8 million tons from the November forecast to a record 110.7 million as growth in China and Russia more than offsets reductions in the United States and the EU.
Global trade, on the other hand, is forecast lower, with exports reduced nearly 400,000 tons to 6.9 million. This is largely due to Russia’s restrictions on imports of EU pork as well as tight exportable supplies from the United States.
Swine disease outbreaks are major forecast movers. Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) has affected production estimates in a number of North American, Asian, and South American countries. This in turn impacts import demand and exportable supplies. Meanwhile African swine fever (ASF) is cited as the reason for Russia’s restrictions on imports of European pork.
Beef and veal
Global production is revised slightly higher from the November forecast to a record 58.9 million tons. Increases for the United States and a number of other countries offset a downward revision for the EU and a small reduction for Australia.
Global trade continues to flourish despite tight supplies and exports are revised over 300,000 tons higher to 9.5 million. A more favorable demand outlook for a wide range of countries such as China, Venezuela, Angola, Chile, Saudi Arabia and the EU will stimulate greater shipments by Brazil and India.