China Releases its China Agricultural Outlook Report 2016-2025(2)
Planting area might increase
As predicted by the Report, in the 13th Five-Year Plan period and beyond into the next ten years, soy bean production will be back to the normal course of restorative growth. In 2016, the planting area of corn might witness its first growth in the last six years. More consumption and imports is expected for the domestic market but the pace will slow down.
The duration of 12th Five-Year Plan was accompanied by continuous decline in the production and significant increase of the import of soy bean. The acreage went down 6.5% from 19.44 million acres in 2011 to 16.28 million acres in 2015; the output decreased 19.8% from 1,449 million tons in 2011 to 1,161 million tons in 2015. In the meantime, the demand for protein feed in animal husbandry boosts the consumption of soy bean steadily. From 2011-2015, the total consumption of soy bean summed up to 400 million tons with an annual growth of 5.3%. Total imports of soybean from 2011-2015 stayed at 328 million tons with an annual import growth of 11.6%.
The report states that in 2016 the soybean acreage will reach17.00 million acres, up 70.84 million acres from 2015 as a result of the temporary storage policy and the mix of crops planted in the “sickle shaped areas, namely the cold are in the Northeast, the agro-pastoral transition zone in the North, the arid area in the Northwest, area along the Taihang Mountain and the rocky desertification area in Southwest of China. The upturn of acreage was the first increase since 2009. Driven by the demand for feed protein, soy meal and edible vegetable oil, it is expected that China will consume 9,169 million tons of soybean, up 2.4% year-on-year. Among the total amount consumed, 87.5% will be accounted by crushing industry. and the use of soy bean in crushing industry is expected to increase 2.3% to 8,019 million tons in 2016. The imports of soybean will add up to 8,228 million tons in 2016.
During the span of five years from 2020 to 2025, the soybean acreage will reach 19.27 million acres, increasing 2.29 million acres. Supported by increasing incomes and urbanization, urban and rural residents will consume more meat, dairy products, edible vegetable oil and vegetable protein, further driving the consumption of soybean. As forecasted by the Report, by year 2025 China’s annual consumption of soybean will be 108 million tons.
In his speech at China Agricultural Outlook Conference, Han Changfu, Minister of agriculture of MOA stressed that China needs to step up the agricultural supply-side structural reform to promote the adaptability and flexibility of agricultural supply. According to Mr. Han, with the market demand used as a beacon, the attention should be paid to the adjustment and optimization of variety structure, quality, industry structure and the supply of innovative products for customers; the attention should also be focused on the use of "big data" and the decision making based on data.