Industry Trends

China Releases its China Agricultural Outlook Report 2016-2025(1)

Date:2016-07-28 Source: Author: Browse: Font:LargeMediumSmall Print

April 22-23, 2016, at the China Agricultural Outlook Conference hosted by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee, Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) the 2016-2025 version of China Agricultural Outlook Report was released.


The Report which forecasts the market situation in the next ten years marks the preliminary launch of China’s agricultural outlook activities, indicating that China’s global system for agricultural research and analysis is witnessing solid progress. The Report analyses the market trends of the major agricultural products in terms of production, consumption, trade and price. Thecharacteristics and trends of the market stated in the Report are of significant meaning to the production and operating activities ofthe market players.


Corn

Planted area first down in the last 12 years According to the forecast of China Agricultural Outlook Report, the planted area of corn will decline for the first time in the last 12 years; the supply and demand gap will occur in 2018 and in the period from 2020-2025 the production of corn would post a slow recovery. 


During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, both the planting area and the output of corn in China registered fast growth. Owing to the domestic slower economic growth and plummet of global oil prices, the consumption of corn in Chinese market has been weak with an averaged consumption of about 180 million tons. These factors combined with a change of farmers’ behavior toward rain storage lead to continuous increase of national corn stocks. Meanwhile, in the last five years the net import volume of corn totaled up to 17.25 million tons because of the inversion of prices between domestic and overseas markets. 


During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the planting area and production of corn in China are expected to decrease as a result of structural change and lower oil prices. By 2020, the acreage and yield of corn are expected to be 85.02 million acres and 20,567 million tons respectively, down 10% and 8% respectively from 2015. However, influenced by population growth, increasing urbanization, improvement of life in the countryside and the upgrade of resident consumption structure, the consumption of corn in the Chinese market will show restorative growth with an averaged annual growth rate of 3%. By 2018, the demand for corn will surpass the production and the gap will reach more than 1,600 million tons by 2020.


As the pressure from the corn stocks will be relieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the industrial consumption of corn will likely be slightly reduced. It is forecasted that the industrial consumption of corn will be 55.30 million tons, down 0.8% from 2016. The increasing demand will also encourage the increasing pace of imports. By 2025, China will import up to two million tons of corn. [To be continued......]