World Grain Production up from January (2)
World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is estimated to have fallen by 37 million metric tonnes in 2015—2016, to just over 2 billion metric tonnes. The year-on-year drop is mainly due to reduced output of maize, more than outweighing bumper crops of wheat, barley and sorghum. Consumption is expected to remain at a high level, only fractionally lower than the previous season’s record. Carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are seen reaching a 29-year peak, led by accumulations of wheat and barley.
World trade is projected modestly down year-on-year, at the second highest ever.
Large stocks will help to cushion the impact of a projected 21 million metric tonnes year-on-year decline in 2016—2017 wheat production.Only a small drop in area is anticipated, but average yields may not be as high as in the previous season.
Preliminary expectations are for a 1 percent expansion in global maize area in 2016—2017, including gains in the U.S., the CIS, South America and Africa. A small increase in production is seen being entirely absorbed by higher use, but ending stocks are projected to recede only slightly and will likely remain in excess of 200 million metric tonnes.
Against the backdrop of another year of large crops in key producers, global soybean output is seen matching the previous year’s record of 321 million metric tonnes. Uptake is anticipated to expand by 11 million metric tonnes year-on-year on growing demand from feed and food sectors but, owing to heavy carry-ins, aggregate carryovers are seen edging higher, to a new peak. U.S. closing stocks are expected to more than double and will likely compensate for falls elsewhere, including in China, while deliveries to that market are set to expand modestly as world trade reaches a new high of 129 million metric tonnes.
Highlighting relatively tighter fundamentals, global rapeseed/canola inventories are projected to contract by one-fifth year-on-year, to 5.4 million metric tonnes, including steep falls in Canada and the EU.(To be continued......)